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There is hysteria about how powerful they will become how quickly, and there is hysteria about what they will do to jobs. As I write these words on September 2nd,I note just two news stories from the last 48 hours. It even has a graphic to prove the numbers.
The claims are ludicrous. How many robots are currently operational in those jobs? Mistaken predictions lead to fear of things that are not going to happen. Why are people making mistakes in predictions about Artificial Intelligence and robotics, so that Oren Etzioni, I, and others, need to spend time pushing back on them?
We find instances of these ways of thinking in many of the predictions about our AI future. I am going to first list the four such general topic areas of predictions that I notice, along with a brief assessment of where I think they currently stand.
Here the idea is that we will build autonomous agents that operate much like beings in the world. This has always been my own motivation for working in robotics and AI, but the recent successes of AI are not at all like this. Interpreting current AI as an instance of AGI makes it seem much more advanced and all encompassing that it really is.
Modern day AGI research is not doing at all well on being either general or getting to an independent entity with an ongoing existence.
It mostly seems stuck on the same issues in reasoning and common sense that AI has had problems with for at least fifty years. Alternate areas such as Artificial Life, and Simulation of Adaptive Behavior did make some progress in getting full creatures in the eighties and nineties these two areas and communities were where I spent my time during those yearsbut they have stalled.
My own opinion is that of course this is possible in principle. I would never have started working on Artificial Intelligence if I did not believe that. I put the word believe in scare quotes as belief in the singularity can often seem like a religious belief.
For some it comes with an additional benefit of being able to upload their minds to an intelligent computer, and so get eternal life without the inconvenience of having to believe in a standard sort of supernatural God. The ever powerful technologically based AI is the new God for them.
Some people have very specific ideas about when the day of salvation will come—followers of one particular Singularity prophet believe that it will happen in the yearas it has been written.
This particular error of prediction is very much driven by exponentialism, and I will address that as one of the seven common mistakes that people make. Even if there is a lot of computer power around it does not mean we are close to having programs that can do research in Artificial Intelligence, and rewrite their own code to get better and better.
Here is where we are on programs that can understand computer code. We currently have no programs that can understand a one page program as well as a new student in computer science can understand such a program after just one month of taking their very first class in programming.
That is a long way from AI systems being better at writing AI systems than humans are. Here is where we are on simulating brains at the neural level, the other methodology that Singularity worshipers often refer to.
But it has been a thirty years study with hundreds of people involved, all trying to understand just neurons. To simulate a human brain with billion neurons and a vast number of connections is quite a way off. So if you are going to rely on the Singularity to upload yourself to a brain simulation I would try to hold off on dying for another couple of centuries.
Just in case I have not made my own position on the Singularity clear, I refer you to my comments in a regularly scheduled look at the event by the magazine IEEE Spectrum.
And yes, I do admit to being a little snarky in … C.
The third case is that the Artificial Intelligence based machines get really good at execution of tasks, so much so that they are super human at getting things done in a complex world.10 Signs You Know What Matters.
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In this paper, I review three major purposes for arms control negotiations — disarmament, stability, and advantage. In the first part of the paper, I compare the three purposes against the causes of war literature to show that each provides a defensible. [An essay in my series on the Future of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence.].
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics. There is hysteria about how powerful they will become how quickly, and there is hysteria about what they will do to jobs.
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